Inferring the multiplicity of founder variants initiating HIV-1 infection: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 infections initiated by multiple founder variants are characterised by a higher viral load and a worse clinical prognosis than those initiated with single founder variants, yet little is known about the routes of exposure through which transmission of multiple founder variants is most probable. Here we used individual patient data to calculate the probability of multiple founders stratified by route of HIV exposure and study methodology. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that estimated founder variant multiplicity in HIV-1 infection, searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for papers published between Jan 1, 1990, and Sept 14, 2020. Eligible studies must have reported original estimates of founder variant multiplicity in people with acute or early HIV-1 infections, have clearly detailed the methods used, and reported the route of exposure. Studies were excluded if they reported data concerning people living with HIV-1 who had known or suspected superinfection, who were documented as having received pre-exposure prophylaxis, or if the transmitting partner was known to be receiving antiretroviral treatment. Individual patient data were collated from all studies, with authors contacted if these data were not publicly available. We applied logistic meta-regression to these data to estimate the probability that an HIV infection is initiated by multiple founder variants. We calculated a pooled estimate using a random effects model, subsequently stratifying this estimate across exposure routes in a univariable analysis. We then extended our model to adjust for different study methods in a multivariable analysis, recalculating estimates across the exposure routes. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202672. FINDINGS: We included 70 publications in our analysis, comprising 1657 individual patients. Our pooled estimate of the probability that an infection is initiated by multiple founder variants was 0·25 (95% CI 0·21-0·29), with moderate heterogeneity (Q=132·3, p<0·0001, I2=64·2%). Our multivariable analysis uncovered differences in the probability of multiple variant infection by exposure route. Relative to a baseline of male-to-female transmission, the predicted probability for female-to-male multiple variant transmission was significantly lower at 0·13 (95% CI 0·08-0·20), and the probabilities were significantly higher for transmissions in people who inject drugs (0·37 [0·24-0·53]) and men who have sex with men (0·30 [0·33-0·40]). There was no significant difference in the probability of multiple variant transmission between male-to-female transmission (0·21 [0·14-0·31]), post-partum transmission (0·18 [0·03-0·57]), pre-partum transmission (0·17 [0·08-0·33]), and intra-partum transmission (0·27 [0·14-0·45]). INTERPRETATION: We identified that transmissions in people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men are significantly more likely to result in an infection initiated by multiple founder variants, and female-to-male infections are significantly less probable. Quantifying how the routes of HIV infection affect the transmission of multiple variants allows us to better understand how the evolution and epidemiology of HIV-1 determine clinical outcomes. FUNDING: Medical Research Council Precision Medicine Doctoral Training Programme and a European Research Council Starting Grant.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective cohort study in England

Background: The ability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to protect against infection and onward transmission determines whether immunisation can control global circulation. We estimated the effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) and Oxford AstraZeneca adenovirus vector vaccine (ChAdOx1) vaccines against acquisition and transmission of the Alpha and Delta variants in a prospective household study in England. Methods: : Households were recruited based on adult purported index cases testing positive after reverse transcription-quantitative (RT-q)PCR testing of oral-nasal swabs. Purported index cases and their household contacts took oral-nasal swabs on days 1, 3 and 7 after enrolment and a subset of the PCR-positive swabs underwent genomic sequencing conducted on a subset. We used Bayesian logistic regression to infer vaccine effectiveness against acquisition and transmission, adjusted for age, vaccination history and variant. Results: : Between 2 February 2021 and 10 September 2021, 213 index cases and 312 contacts were followed up. After excluding households lacking genomic proximity (N=2) or with unlikely serial intervals (N=16), 195 households with 278 contacts remained, of whom 113 (41%) became PCR positive. Delta lineages had 1.53 times the risk (95% Credible Interval: 1.04 – 2.20) of transmission than Alpha;contacts older than 18 years old were 1.48 (1.20 – 1.91) and 1.02 (0.93 – 1.16) times more likely to acquire an Alpha or Delta infection than children. Effectiveness of two doses of BNT162b2 against transmission of Delta was 36% (-1%, 66%) and 49% (18%, 73%) for ChAdOx1, similar to their effectiveness for Alpha. Protection against infection with Alpha was higher than for Delta, 69% (9%, 95%) vs. 18% (-11%, 59%), respectively, for BNT162b2 and 24% (-41%, 72%) vs. 9% (-15%, 42%), respectively, for ChAdOx1. Conclusions: : BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 reduce transmission of the Delta variant from breakthrough infections in the household setting, although their protection against infection within this setting is low.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infections in The Gambia: an analysis of routinely collected surveillance data between March, 2020, and January, 2022.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, is one of the deadliest pandemics of the past 100 years. Genomic sequencing has an important role in monitoring of the evolution of the virus, including the detection of new viral variants. We aimed to describe the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infections in The Gambia. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs collected from people with suspected cases of COVID-19 and international travellers were tested for SARS-CoV-2 with standard RT-PCR methods. SARS-CoV-2-positive samples were sequenced according to standard library preparation and sequencing protocols. Bioinformatic analysis was done using ARTIC pipelines and Pangolin was used to assign lineages. To construct phylogenetic trees, sequences were first stratified into different COVID-19 waves (waves 1-4) and aligned. Clustering analysis was done and phylogenetic trees constructed. FINDINGS: Between March, 2020, and January, 2022, 11 911 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded in The Gambia, and 1638 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced. Cases were broadly distributed into four waves, with more cases during the waves that coincided with the rainy season (July-October). Each wave occurred after the introduction of new viral variants or lineages, or both, generally those already established in Europe or in other African countries. Local transmission was higher during the first and third waves (ie, those that corresponded with the rainy season), in which the B.1.416 lineage and delta (AY.34.1) were dominant, respectively. The second wave was driven by the alpha and eta variants and the B.1.1.420 lineage. The fourth wave was driven by the omicron variant and was predominantly associated with the BA.1.1 lineage. INTERPRETATION: More cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were recorded in The Gambia during peaks of the pandemic that coincided with the rainy season, in line with transmission patterns for other respiratory viruses. The introduction of new lineages or variants preceded epidemic waves, highlighting the importance of implementing well structured genomic surveillance at a national level to detect and monitor emerging and circulating variants. FUNDING: Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK Research and Innovation, WHO.

Characterising within-hospitalSARS-CoV-2 transmission events using epidemiological and viral genomic data across two pandemic waves.

Hospital outbreaks of COVID19 result in considerable mortality and disruption to healthcare services and yet little is known about transmission within this setting. We characterise within hospital transmission by combining viral genomic and epidemiological data using Bayesian modelling amongst 2181 patients and healthcare workers from a large UK NHS Trust. Transmission events were compared between Wave 1 (1st March to 25th J'uly 2020) and Wave 2 (30th November 2020 to 24th January 2021). We show that staff-to-staff transmissions reduced from 31.6% to 12.9% of all infections. Patient-to-patient transmissions increased from 27.1% to 52.1%. 40%-50% of hospital-onset patient cases resulted in onward transmission compared to 4% of community-acquired cases. Control measures introduced during the pandemic likely reduced transmissions between healthcare workers but were insufficient to prevent increasing numbers of patient-to-patient transmissions. As hospital-acquired cases drive most onward transmission, earlier identification of nosocomial cases will be required to break hospital transmission chains.